Over the course of the past couple of days, I have had the opportunity to get out and meet with a few Jordanians who could reasonably be classed as "elites." I don't mean that they are rich, but all are highly educated and cosmopolitan, speak excellent English and have well-paid managerial jobs at locally-based community development organizations. All of them, in one way or another, work on youth development initiatives.
In these conversations, I have heard a similar theme emerging: anxiety about the many unknowns that follow the end of the Mubarak regime (or others, should they fall) and concerns that the general public throughout the Middle East--with the possible exception of Tunisia-- isn't yet sufficiently prepared to participate in a full-blown democracy. "People don't even understand the concept of voting in most of Jordan," one told me. "They vote for whatever representative of their tribe is in the race. They don't care about positions on issues. People are going and protesting to change the government. I want to start a protest to change the people!"
Another person told me that now that Mubarak has agreed to step down, the protestors should back off and give the government time to carry out an orderly transition.
I also heard the argument that Mubarak isn't a great guy, but he's no Saddam Hussein. Yes, my colleague acknowledged, his security forces tortured people in prisons, but he hasn't ruled with the same kind of brutality that Saddam did, openly terrorizing and murdering his own citizens and completely cutting them off from the outside world.
The potential fallout of the shifting geopolitical situation was foremost in the minds of some. One theory floating around is that the Israeli government will do a complete 180 shift with regard to its strategy toward Jordan. Since its peace treaty with Egypt is perceived to be in danger, with the stance of any future Egyptian government on the subject still unknown, some people believe that Israel will ditch its treaty with Jordan, too. Instead, the theory goes, Israel would support an uprising among Palestinians--who make up 50% of Jordan's population-- with the hope that a new Palestinian state could be created within Jordanian territory, rather than on the West Bank. Anyone who has spent time in the Middle East can tell you that conspiracy theories are a way of life here. But people who know the region also know that lots of seemingly crazy things are possible--especially when it comes to politics.
Although these various reflections and theories about the unfolding situation in the region are interesting, what I find most fascinating is that these seasoned development professionals who have dedicated their careers to promoting postive social change, civil society strengthening, and youth civic engagement are looking a little green around the gills now. They would prefer another ten years to lay the foundation for democratic participation, whereas the youth in the streets don't want to wait another ten minutes. Does this difference represent a generation gap? A division between those who have grown comfortable with their place in the establishment verus those with an education but no job and nothing left to lose? A sign of adult conservatism clashing with youthful idealism? Does it matter? Perhaps in the end what will be most important is whose theory of change wins out, how the lines are redrawn between governments and their citizens, and whether or not the end result is a peaceful, stable, and more just region.
In these conversations, I have heard a similar theme emerging: anxiety about the many unknowns that follow the end of the Mubarak regime (or others, should they fall) and concerns that the general public throughout the Middle East--with the possible exception of Tunisia-- isn't yet sufficiently prepared to participate in a full-blown democracy. "People don't even understand the concept of voting in most of Jordan," one told me. "They vote for whatever representative of their tribe is in the race. They don't care about positions on issues. People are going and protesting to change the government. I want to start a protest to change the people!"
Another person told me that now that Mubarak has agreed to step down, the protestors should back off and give the government time to carry out an orderly transition.
I also heard the argument that Mubarak isn't a great guy, but he's no Saddam Hussein. Yes, my colleague acknowledged, his security forces tortured people in prisons, but he hasn't ruled with the same kind of brutality that Saddam did, openly terrorizing and murdering his own citizens and completely cutting them off from the outside world.
The potential fallout of the shifting geopolitical situation was foremost in the minds of some. One theory floating around is that the Israeli government will do a complete 180 shift with regard to its strategy toward Jordan. Since its peace treaty with Egypt is perceived to be in danger, with the stance of any future Egyptian government on the subject still unknown, some people believe that Israel will ditch its treaty with Jordan, too. Instead, the theory goes, Israel would support an uprising among Palestinians--who make up 50% of Jordan's population-- with the hope that a new Palestinian state could be created within Jordanian territory, rather than on the West Bank. Anyone who has spent time in the Middle East can tell you that conspiracy theories are a way of life here. But people who know the region also know that lots of seemingly crazy things are possible--especially when it comes to politics.
Although these various reflections and theories about the unfolding situation in the region are interesting, what I find most fascinating is that these seasoned development professionals who have dedicated their careers to promoting postive social change, civil society strengthening, and youth civic engagement are looking a little green around the gills now. They would prefer another ten years to lay the foundation for democratic participation, whereas the youth in the streets don't want to wait another ten minutes. Does this difference represent a generation gap? A division between those who have grown comfortable with their place in the establishment verus those with an education but no job and nothing left to lose? A sign of adult conservatism clashing with youthful idealism? Does it matter? Perhaps in the end what will be most important is whose theory of change wins out, how the lines are redrawn between governments and their citizens, and whether or not the end result is a peaceful, stable, and more just region.
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